Lau Just Climate Futures Β· UC Berkeley CED Β· 2025–2026

Multi-scale Mitigation of
Wildfire Risk in the
Natural & Built Environments

A comprehensive research framework using computational wildfire simulations, geospatial data science (remote sensing, GIS, network science), and decision-making for complex systems (wildland urban interface). The project examines how wildfire risk emerges, evolves, and can be mitigated - from global pyrogeographic shifts down to the neighborhood and individual parcel scale.

Marta C. Gonzalez DCRP & CIVENG
John Radke DCRP & LAEP
Minho Kim LAEP
β€” News and Updates
Talk
Webinar for UC Berkeley's Center for Catastrophic Risk Management (CCRM)
June 2026  Β·  Institute of Governmental Studies, Berkeley
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Exhibition
The Weather To Come: Forest, City, Fire, Cloud
Apr 7 – 21, 2026  Β·  Bauer Wurster Gallery, UC Berkeley CED  Β·  Opening Reception Apr 7 at 6 PM
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Exhibition
SF Climate Week 2026: The Weather To Come: Forest, City, Fire, Cloud
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Publication
New Automated Mapping Approach Has Potential to Revolutionize Fire Suppression
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Grant
CED awards four faculty seed grants for climate research
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00 β€” Research Context

Wildfires represent one of the most dynamic and destructive natural hazards on Earth. Fire behavior is shaped by the complex nexus of climate, landscapes, and humans -- all of which are dynamic factors interacting simultaneously. This research program addresses wildfire risk from a multi-scale perspective: understanding how global fire regimes are evolving, how synchronous fire weather is enhancing the likelihood of extreme fires, how extreme fires emerge in unexpected geographies, how simulations can improve operational response, and how risk can be shared and mitigated at the community scale through shared governance. The projects presented here span from global pyrogeographic analysis using machine learning down to parcel-level responsibility networks for neighborhood fire risk mitigation.

β€” Six Projects Β· Global to Local
01
🌍 Global Scale · Machine Learning

Dynamic Evolution of Pyrogeography

Using unsupervised ML on 24 years of global fire data to cluster into pyromes and track how they transition and intensify over time.

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02
🌑️ Global Scale · Climate

Dynamic Evolution of Fire Weather Risk

Quantifying concurrent high-danger fire weaether conditions using synchronous fire weather days (SFW) and assessing the conditional probability of fire occurrence under extreme weather.

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03
πŸ‡°πŸ‡· Regional Scale Β· Case Study

Are Extreme Fires Unprecedented or Unexpected?

Benchmarking the record-breaking March 2025 South Korea wildfire against global megafire databases and analyzing the anomalous fire weather conditions.

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04
πŸ”₯ Local Scale Β· Modeling

Fighting Fires with Wildfire Simulations

Coupling Cell2Fire with WindNinja to produce spatially-explicit, downscaled wind fields and to simulate on the 2025 Los Angeles Palisades Fire for first 32-hour spread.

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05
πŸ—ΊοΈ Operational Β· Decision Support

Fighting Fires with Fire Potential Risk Networks

Automating fire potential polygon generation via hydrology-inspired modeling and building suppression strategy networks - together with the Catalan Fire Service.

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06
🏘️ Neighborhood Scale · Community

Mitigating Risk as Shared Responsibility

Rethinking defensible spaces as overlapping buffers and developing spatial responsibility networks that quantify shared and owed risk between neighboring parcels.

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